The century shift
What a changing world order could mean for Australia's economy, population and housing market.
About a month ago I wrote a Missive about the 18-year property cycle and the work of Samuel Benner. It generated one of the largest responses I have received in some time.
Revisit
The reactions were fascinating.
Some readers dismissed the idea entirely. To them, housing cycles are little more than coincidence. A few were adamant that Australia’s housing boom simply could not end. Interestingly, many of those voices came from the property promotion side of the industry, where perpetual growth is often treated as a business model rather than a possibility.
Others took a very different view. Many of the strongest supporters of long-term cycles were older readers. People who had lived through multiple housing downturns, a recession (and in a couple of cases two or more), recoveries and interest rate shocks. Their view was not that cycles predict the future with precision, but that human behaviour tends to repeat itself.
Which raises a much bigger question.
If housing markets move in cycles, do economies, nations and even empires move through cycles as well?
Today’s first images suggests they might.
Behind the paywall I unpack the five stages of empires and what they could mean for Australia's next 25 years.