The year that was
The top ten Matusik Missives for 2025
Before we get to the wrap, a quick thank-you.
During 2025 I wrote 73 Missives, attracting 639,000 views. The average open rate sat at 65%, with several posts pushing above 80% - a remarkable level of engagement according to substack.
That tells me something important: you weren’t just opening these notes, you were actually reading them. Questioning them. Arguing with them. Passing them on.
So thank you for the time, the support, the challenges, and the occasional “you’re mad” emails. With that, here are the ten most-viewed Missives of 2025 - in order.
#1 – Population update 2025: Expect 500,000 new peeps per annum
This Missive cut through because it put scale front and centre. Australia added roughly 550,000 people in a year - around 10,000 a week - well above the recent five-year average. NSW and Victoria captured most overseas migration, while Queensland and WA dominated interstate inflows. Together, four states absorbed 94% of total growth.
Looking ahead, ABS high-series projections point to 470,000 people per year to 2030 - another 2.3 million residents. That means building the equivalent of another Perth, requiring about 1.2 million new dwellings in five years. Demand isn’t easing. If anything, it’s being underestimated.
#2 – India Rising: Forget the politics
This post resonated, I reckon, because it stripped politics away and focused on housing reality. Australia’s Indian-born population is now just under one million, overtaking China as our second-largest migrant group. Settlement is highly concentrated in metro growth corridors, where Indians can comprise 8%–15% of local populations.
Housing outcomes matter. Indian households skew strongly toward family living, detached homes and multi-generational arrangements. Many rent first, then buy quickly - adding pressure at both ends of the market. Ignore this cohort and you ignore one of the most powerful structural drivers of future housing demand.
It also helps that some 5% of my readership is based in India and that these cats - thank you - make up 15% of my paid tribe.
#3 – RBA, tariffs and more: For mine, housing is about to boom
This Missive struck a nerve because it leaned into an uncomfortable idea: stagflation can be bullish for housing. I argued that weakening jobs, sticky inflation and falling interest rates (at that tome, as this post was written in early April) form a cocktail that historically lifts property prices.
Every 0.25% rate cut boosts borrowing capacity by 2%–3%, injecting fresh demand just as supply remains tight. The call was clear - a 12–24 month window of upside, followed by a longer plateau. Not advice. Just pattern recognition.
But remember this was written in April 2025, a lot has changed since then.
#4 – Demand v supply outlook: Build smarter, not just taller
This one challenged the lazy belief that apartments alone will fix housing. Using adult household formation rather than headline population, I showed Australia needs more dwellings than governments admit - and a different mix.
Around 95% of detached approvals get built. Roughly 60% of apartment approvals do not. Australians still want freehold, flexibility and a connection to the ground. Fixing supply means changing what we build, how we build it, where it goes, how it’s financed, and who owns the land - not just building higher.
#5 – Will the portal become the agent? The next big housing disruption
This Missive was only posted a few weeks ago and yet it has made the top ten. Given the emails I got, it must of touched a nerve. Yet most emails agreed with my thesis and some suggested more detailed ways in which they thought the REA and Domain would proceed.
I argued that REA and Domain already control the eyeballs, the data and the tools. AI now handles pricing, copy, buyer matching and prompts.
Sellers already pay the portals - just indirectly via agents. Overseas, commission models are collapsing. Australia won’t be immune. The next disruption in housing isn’t bricks and mortar - it’s who gets paid when you sell.
#6 – Pebbles amongst the stones: A key mindset to solving the our housing supply problem
Using SEQ as the case study, this Missive reframed the housing crisis away from towers versus sprawl. Entry-level detached prices are now well beyond first-home buyers, while apartments are costly to build and run.
The solution lies in gentle density - small lots, townhouses, walk-ups and backyard homes. Ipswich stood out for modernising planning rules and embracing this middle ground. It showed affordability isn’t a mystery - it’s a planning choice.
#7 – Taxing paper gains: A line that must not be crossed
This Missive warned about precedent. Taxing unrealised capital gains in super isn’t just about the wealthy - it normalises taxing paper profits.
Once that line is crossed, no asset class is safe. Thresholds aren’t indexed, asset-rich cash-poor households get squeezed, and confidence in saving erodes. This wasn’t reform. It was a slow burn risk to trust, investment and long-term wealth creation.
#8 – Housing ahead: What to expect in fiscal 26
This post tackled recession risk and housing direction together. Fiscal 26 is unlikely to deliver a technical recession, but growth will remain fragile.
Housing enters a slower, uneven phase - national growth of 3%–6%, with attached dwellings outperforming in several markets. Perth, Adelaide and parts of SEQ remain standouts. Risks are rising, but undersupply keeps a floor under values.
But in late December, halfway through fiscal 2026, the chance of generic housing price increases during calendar 2026 is declining. More on this early next year.
#9 – Not enough: Australia’s housing undersupply
This Missive put hard numbers on the shortage. Australia now approves just 6 dwellings per 1,000 residents, down from 10 a decade ago - a 40% collapse.
Even cities with modest population growth are falling behind, proving migration isn’t the only issue. Planning delays, cost pressures and financing constraints are choking supply. Ignore this, and the consequences won’t just be economic - they’ll be political.
#10 – Projections vs reality: Big numbers that are unlikely to come true, unless....
This one closed the loop. Population forecasts aren’t heroic - but the housing to support them often doesn’t exist. Six of the top ten growth LGAs sit in SEQ, yet only Logan comes close to matching supply with demand.
Without more homes, growth won’t materialise - prices and rents will just rise faster. The answer isn’t endless high-rise, but smarter supply, faster approvals and fixing the taxes that discourage right-sizing.
Last, but not least: Contracts, covenants, and the country we’re becoming
This was my hardest Missive to write - and my favourite.
It wasn’t about housing, but it may be the most important thing I wrote all year. Drawing on lived experience, Tasmania, travel, tragedy and the ideas of Jonathan Sacks, I argued Australia is drifting from covenant to contract - from shared responsibility to pure transaction.
Rights now shout louder than duties. Belonging is demanded, not earned. We outsource responsibility, then rage when outcomes disappoint. My provocation — compulsory national community service — wasn’t about efficiency. It was about empathy, shared experience and rebuilding social glue.
Contracts can hold a country together for a while. Only covenants make it last.
Some common threads
Across these Missives, a few themes kept surfacing.
First, scale matters. Population growth, housing undersupply, debt and policy impacts are all bigger - and more structural - than political soundbites suggest. Second, we keep building the wrong solutions. Apartments aren’t a cure-all, policy tinkering rarely sticks, and incentives often backfire. Third, supply is constrained by choices, not fate - planning, taxation, financing and risk aversion matter more than ideology.
Finally, and most importantly, housing isn’t just an economic issue. It’s social. Generational. Cultural. Whether it’s access to shelter, trust in systems, or faith in each other, the cracks are connected. Fixing housing requires more than targets and slogans - it requires long-term thinking, shared responsibility and the courage to change how we do things.
And if you want to review any other Missive posts during 2025 and beyond, visit matusik.substack.com and search away.
The Missive will be back on Tuesday, 13 January 2026.
Until then, have a great Christmas, a safe festive season, and a New Year that’s better than the last.
Cheers for now,
Michael