Not every area in Australia is going gangbusters – or even improving - when it comes to price and rental growth.
One such place that is struggling and is in stagnation, is my local, being the Huon Valley and Kingborough council areas.
Kingborough is immediately south of Hobart and is one of the fastest growing areas, in terms of population, in Tassie.
Huon Valley – the council area where we live in these days – it the most southern local government area in Australia and, well was, a somewhat phantastic place until we moved in. It has become even odder since.
The resale market
Supply versus demand rules – like usual – on the apple isle too.
Detached houses moved from an undersupply to an oversupply, with the listing period rising from under four months in 2021 to over 11 months today. The attached dwelling market, although much smaller in terms of sales, remains balanced.
Looking ahead, if supply levels stay high, price growth will likely ease. Sellers need to be realistic about pricing and sale timelines, and strategic marketing will be key.
Choosing the right agency and real estate agent is crucial in a crowded marketplace. Too many sellers in a hamlet like ours will select along family or friendship lines rather than the best expert to do the job.
Looking at my free charts this post they show that prices and rents have started to fall.
This is what happens when supply exceeds demand.
Looking ahead
Recent population data shows growth in these Tasmanian locales, with an average of 880 new residents annually, pushed the combined population to about 61,250 in 2024.
Yes, it is a small joint!
Yet this small influx still has resulted in an undersupply of new housing, with annual demand at around 465 dwellings, but only 355 new approvals yearly.
From 2014 to 2024, housing approvals have fluctuated, peaking at 1,442 in 2018 but dropping to just 213 in 2024. This inconsistency exacerbates the housing supply issue, highlighting the need for more consistent and higher rates of housing development.
Also remember that these are approvals not commencements.
It is hard to track new housing starts by small area in Tasmania. My estimate is that only half of that which is approved across my local area is currently getting built.
Addressing this imbalance is crucial to prevent affordability issues and support sustainable economic growth and much needed local services.
Despite the price points – revisit the free charts above – which seem cheap when compared to the mainland, many locals and especially key workers are finding it hard to afford to rent and buy in the area.
The data calls for immediate action from policymakers and developers to align housing development with the population's growing needs.
If those under 40 keep leaving – yes, it is only the long in the tooth that move here and/or stay – then well, we are up shite creek.
Talk about shooting yourself in both feet!
For example, our local medical centre is only open two days a week at present. A lack of local staff is the issue. And one of the reasons why is that a locum - let alone someone interested in taking up a residence - cannot find affordable digs.
We either need to pay key staff more or supply relevant housing. Preferably both.
And it should be easy!
With large local lot sizes - most of which are acreage styled allotments - there is a great opportunity to supply backyard housing solutions, boarding home styled dwellings and co-living housing designs.
The newsprint from the OZ a few weeks back sums it up nicely.
Get more + save
Paid subscribers get access to my full local chart pack. See below the paywall.
Paid subs also can save 20% on my Ready Reckoner Reports.
Ask Michael
And, if you are a paid subscriber you get to ask me a question. I will answer these in future missives but only below the paywall. Please leave your question in the comments section. We might all learn something, me in particular.