Data, not hype
The Gold Coast Ready Reckoner is out now
1. The Coast is booming – but still behind
The Gold Coast keeps defying expectations. Population growth is running at around 13,500 people a year – roughly double what most planning models predicted a decade ago. Each new wave of arrivals adds pressure on housing that’s already stretched thin. Demand outpaces supply, rents are climbing, and detached homes have become a million-dollar proposition.
Yet the story isn’t all heat and hype. Beneath the headline numbers lies a market that’s maturing, diversifying and – in parts – straining under its own weight. My new Gold Coast Ready Reckoner tracks every key measure: housing supply, price growth, demographics, approvals, population trends, affordability, and the city’s economic pulse.
2. What the data really says
On paper, there’s plenty of supply. In reality, most of it isn’t being built. Over 50,000 dwellings sit in the pipeline, but almost 90% are high-rise apartments – the very type of housing struggling most with feasibility and delivery. Rising costs, limited trades, and Olympic infrastructure works are stealing residential construction. Detached and small-lot homes remain in short supply, and that’s where demand still lives.
Meanwhile, affordability is sliding fast. Detached homes now cost more than six times gross household income. Townhouses and apartments are slightly more attainable, but still edging into “unaffordable” territory. Rents, too, are consuming a bigger slice of household income – with four-bedroom houses brushing the 30% stress threshold. The simple truth? Wages are up, but nowhere near fast enough.
My affordability framework cuts through the noise. It measures both total household income and wage-only income – a more realistic gauge of how younger and lower-income households actually live. It benchmarks both against buying and renting costs to show, clearly, where the stress points lie.
3. Why it matters
The Gold Coast sits in the final phase of the upswing on the property clock. I reckon prices and rents will likely keep rising for another year before flattening out. But unless more supply is delivered – and more variety at that – affordability will remain the city’s defining challenge.
My Ready Reckoners help guide smarter development and planning decisions by providing clear, data-driven insights into local housing demand, supply gaps, market trends, and feasibility conditions. Each report brings together ten years of historic data and forward projections to 2036, all distilled into 26 pages of practical, no-fluff insight.
The Gold Coast Ready Reckoner is available now. Paid Missive subscribers save 20%. If you’re serious about understanding where, what and when to build – or simply want to know where this market’s heading next – this is the one to read before you commit to anything new.