Boxed in?
"My clothes are wet, tight on my skin, not as tight as the corner that I painted myself in"
The byline is a Bob Dylan takeaway from his song Mississippi (originally a Time out of Mind outtake which found itself on Love and Theft) and, I reckon, it is apt when describing the Gold Coast housing market.
Plus the use of a Dylan quote is a big plus to me.
One free chart and several extra ones, for paid Missive subscribers behind the paywall, follows.
The Gold Coast is witnessing an unexpected surge in its growth rate, with projections indicating a potential rise in population to 850,000 residents over the next decade—a 23% increase from the current figures.
This burgeoning growth is starkly contrasted by a severe drop in new housing supply, leading to a critical undersupply in the market. See the chart below.
The challenge of ramping up the housing supply, particularly in terms of new apartments, is compounded by escalating construction costs and a notable scarcity of building trades. The situation is further strained by extensive construction activities related to the upcoming Olympics in Southeast Queensland, which is expected to continue impacting local housing development for the foreseeable future.
The housing market on the Gold Coast is currently in an upswing phase, with dwelling prices, land values, and rents all climbing. If the present rate of population growth sustains and the housing supply constraints remain, it is anticipated that housing values on the Gold Coast could see significant increases over the next 12 to 24 months.
Currently, the Gold Coast is adding approximately 20,000 new residents each year, significantly higher than past averages and current projections. This robust influx necessitates the construction of around 9,500 new dwellings annually.
However, only a fraction of the approved residential allotments have commenced construction, and the actual supply of new dwellings, especially detached homes, is severely constrained. Even with approval for thousands of apartment units, high costs and limited tradespeople make it challenging to meet the required development pace.
Looking ahead, the Queensland Treasury forecasts a modest provision of 7,350 new dwellings over the next two years and 30,000 over the next five years, predominantly in mid-to-high-rise apartments.
Yet, meeting these targets is increasingly difficult, signalling ongoing pressures on housing prices and rental costs on the Gold Coast.
Additionally, there is a pressing need for more flexible housing solutions, such as smaller allotments and backyard homes, which could help address the gap in housing affordability and meet diverse buyer needs.
Such initiatives require thoughtful infrastructure charge strategies to ensure the development of affordable housing options without burdening developers unduly.
Want to know more?
Three options await.
1. Buy my Gold Coast Ready Reckoner Report. Click on the red blob to find out more and buy your report/s today! Paid Missive subscribers save 20%.
2. Attend the Gold Coast housing event on Friday 2nd August. Click on the second red blob below to book your tickets.
3. Go below the paywall, for my full set of charts, which outlines what is going on the Gold Coast. Paid Missive subscribers only.
20 charts and your 20% off Ready Reckoner report coupon follows: