My chart this week illustrates Australia's population projections over the next 25 years.
I have used the medium projection series, and this is founded on the population data and trend as at financial 2022. It is the most up to date data and was released about a month ago.
The projections are divided into several scenarios, showing both the impact of overseas immigration and a scenario with zero net overseas migration.
Key observations from the chart:
1. Population growth with overseas immigration: The blue bars represent the medium series population projections, which include the expected contribution from overseas immigration. The projections indicate steady growth, reaching approximately 35 million by 2048.
The text notes that in the next 5 years, this figure is even higher at 395,000 people per annum, with 88,500 from natural increase alone.
When looking further out, over the next decade, Australia is expected to add 359,000 people annually, of which 65,000 would be from natural increase without overseas immigration.
2. Population growth without overseas immigration: The black line shows the population trajectory with zero net overseas migration. Without immigration, Australia's population growth is significantly slower, indicating the critical role of immigration in driving population increases.
3. Long-term Projections: A generational outlook suggests a yearly population increase close to 300,000, but reflecting a potentially aging local populace, without any immigration, Australia would only grow by 11,000 or 270,000 people over the next 25 years.
4. Importance of Immigration: The contrasting trajectories highlighted by the black line and blue bars underscore the importance of immigration to Australia’s demographic future. The population projections clearly show that sustained immigration is crucial for maintaining robust population growth.
This visual data reinforces the narrative that immigration is a key driver of population growth in Australia and will continue to play a significant role in shaping the country's demographic landscape over the coming decades.
Five reasons why immigration is important
For mine, immigration is important to Australia for several reasons, contributing to various aspects of the country's growth and development.
Here are five key reasons:
1. Economic growth: Immigrants contribute significantly to the economy by filling skill gaps, starting businesses, and boosting consumer demand. They bring diverse talents and experiences that enhance productivity and innovation, driving overall economic prosperity.
2. Population sustainability: Australia's natural birth rate is relatively low, and without immigration – as noted above - the population growth would stagnate and maybe even decline over the long term. Immigrants help maintain a balanced demographic structure, ensuring a steady increase in population to support future development.
3. Labour market needs: Many industries in Australia, such as healthcare, technology, and construction, face labour shortages. Immigration provides a solution by supplying the necessary workforce to meet the demands of these sectors, ensuring continued growth and efficiency.
4. Cultural diversity: Immigrants enrich Australia's cultural landscape, bringing a variety of traditions, cuisines, and perspectives. This diversity fosters a more vibrant, inclusive society, enhancing social cohesion and broadening Australians' understanding of the world. We want the right type of migrant, not just anyone. They want to come here – see the map - below - we just need to set the rules and exercise the rule of law.
5. Global competitiveness: Attracting skilled immigrants helps Australia remain competitive on the global stage. By bringing in top talent from around the world, Australia can strengthen its position in international markets, drive innovation, and maintain its status as a leading economy. It also gives as geopolitical grunt, including a perception of heft. Perception is reality.
My map illustrates global millionaire migrations, highlighting the inflow and outflow of high-net-worth individuals in 2023.
Australia leads with a net gain of 5,200 millionaires, reclaiming its top position for net arrivals. The USA (+2,100), UAE (+4,500), and Singapore (+3,200) also attract significant numbers.
In contrast, China (-13,500) and India (-6,500) see substantial outflows, alongside the UK (-3,200) and Russia (-3,000).
This migration pattern underscores the movement of wealth towards stable, economically prosperous regions while reflecting socio-political and economic challenges in countries experiencing high outflows.
For those who are paid subscribers, below the paywall, are two tables that outline population forecasts by state/territory. Information is supplied by capital and rest of the state and what growth components – natural increase, interstate and overseas migration – are likely to drive the population count between 2024 and 2034.
These tables are also accompanied with short summaries outlining what is likely to unfold – population wise – over the next decade by each state or territories.
Get the full picture
The Matusik Missive comes out on Tuesdays at 8am and 48 times each year.
I do like to take a bit of a break over Easter and around Christmas/New Year.
Each post holds either extra datum, fuller text, my spoken word and sometimes video content. Yikes! But to get this extra stuff - plus search all my back issues and make comments - you will need to join the Matusik Missive Plus tribe.
This will cost you some coin – paid either weekly or on an annual basis.
You will also get free access to my quarterly market overviews and get a discount on my Ready Reckoner reports.
You can sign up for free, but you can only access my content for two weeks after posting and you cannot join any public discourse.
I hope you join the Matusik Missive Plus tribe. If you do, me, and my bank account, say thanks! Click on the red blob below to find out more.