A forth way
Not greenfield. Not knock-down rebuild. Not big gentrification. Something in between.
Every housing debate in Australia still gets stuck in the same cul-de-sac.
Preserve everything or knock it all down.
Last week, I stepped aside and let Damian do the heavy lifting. The idea was simple: there is a fourth way.
Not greenfield expansion. Not greyfield demolition. Not brownfield big projects. Something in between.
Revisit
This week, I want to move that thinking from concept to market reality.
Because the numbers tell a story. You can see it in the chart below.
Right now, The Australian housing mix looks something like this:
That’s the system we’ve built.
Over 90% of supply comes from either pushing outwards, knocking things down or rezoning what once was.
And all are getting harder.
Greenfield is running into infrastructure costs and timing delays.
Brownfield needs land release that rarely materialises and when they do take big budget inputs and take an age to deliver.
Greyfield increasingly struggles with feasibility, finance and local friction i.e. NIMBYism.
So the question becomes: Where does the next tranche of new housing supply actually come from? How can it be delivered. And what about all the extra cars? Read on paid subscribers.